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Political scientists have recently conducted hundreds of
randomized field experiments to examine the effectiveness of various
mobilization methods for increasing voter turnout. Given the high
degree of internal and external validity, the empirical findings of
these studies have a potential to significantly impact the practice
of get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaigns in the real world. In this
paper, we offer an essential and yet missing methodological tool
that allows GOTV campaign planners to best utilize the results of
such field experiments. In particular, we show how to derive the
optimal GOTV campaign strategy from field experiments. Our
nonparametric method is applicable to partisan or nonpartisan
campaigns as well as campaigns with multiple mobilization methods of
the same or different costs. We evaluate the effectiveness of the
proposed method using three existing field experiments. In multiple
cases, we find that the resulting optimal campaign strategy is more
than twice as cost-effective as a naive strategy.
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This article has won the Political
Analysis Editors' Choice Award |
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